Here are the US close regulars and other article links. Some interesting rumors floating around, some of them outlined below. It might be that they are just increasing the pressure on Greeks to vote "correctly" - or are actually preparing to kick Greece out.Of course, in order to make it look like they mean it, it will have to look like they mean it. This makes it very hard to decipher what is really going on.
My guess is they probably want to throw Greece out, as politically they could put all the blame on Greeks and the European banks are relatively safe, as their losses have already been socialized. But they have to make it look like they really, really wanted Greece to stay. It's like with you mother-in-law visiting. You have to act, sob at the door that she must already leave and oh when will I see you again. Crocodile tears and all. Even if inside you're dancing.
News –
Between The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer
– alphaville
/ FT
Market
Commentary – A
View from My Screens
Asian
Morning Briefing – BNY
Mellon
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
As
Reality Recedes, Rumor Rampage Returns
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
 |
| The outflows, the balances |
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
EU Summit Dinner Menu: Indigestion – Credit
Writedowns
The scope for compromise that seems most
realistic is 1) allowing countries extra time to reach fiscal targets, 2)
expanded EIB and project bonds for infrastructure/public investment, 3) provide
easier access to cohesion funds and 4) EMU-wide guarantee for savings deposits.
The last point seems to be a bit of a stretch… The bottom line is that today’s
informal EU summit is not the real thing. It is out of the late June summit
that a new effort will likely emerge.
Euro Basis Swap Flashing Coordinated Liquidity
Intervention Red Light – ZH
With LTRO funding now faded and perception of
the sustainability of European banks becoming dismal, US banks are charging
ever higher rates for Eurozone banks to borrow.
EU Summit Dinner Menu: Indigestion – Marc
to Market
The EU informal summit will be held over a
dinner and despite the attention it is receiving, it still seems unreasonable
to expect anything concrete. Negotiating positions will be staked out, but most
of the issues will require greater negotiations. June or even July seems a more
likely time frame for yet another "comprehensive solution."
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| European banks are leveraged |
Goldman Pops The "Deus GrEx
Machina" Balloon
– ZH
Goldman
Sachs: the ECB cannot deal with concerns
about bank solvency and/or deposit currency redenomination. That requires a
pan-Euro area guarantee of the Euro value of bank deposits by the fiscal
authorities.
new capital flow data from March, which
worsened considerably, via a missive from Nomura analysts on Wednesday
In Europe, Time for Plan B, Only There’s No Plan, and No Time – MarketBeat
/ WSJ
Something concrete finally came out of a eurocrat summit. The Germans said no… This crisis was ultimately going to resolve itself in one of two ways: the Continent was either going to form a United States of Europe, or the euro experiment was going to fail. It appears to be going in the latter direction.
Something concrete finally came out of a eurocrat summit. The Germans said no… This crisis was ultimately going to resolve itself in one of two ways: the Continent was either going to form a United States of Europe, or the euro experiment was going to fail. It appears to be going in the latter direction.
Sitting At The Edge Of The World – Mark Grant / ZH
If you listen carefully you can hear the
tremors in the Spanish voices, the inflections of need, the beginnings of
sentences not quite finished. Spain has arrived at the
wall; now all that is left is the public announcement.
European Parliament chief Martin Schulz has
launched a scathing attack on the German chancellor for promoting policies he
says drive up the borrowing costs of other euro-countries, while Germany has just hit a record zero-percent interest rate on its bonds.
 |
| Follows the CB balance sheets |
SocGen’s Sebastien Galy Says Euro Should `Slide
Lower’ – BB (mp3)
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
on Monday a Eurogroup Working Group held a
teleconference in which officials "agreed to prepare for individual
contingency plans if and when Greece exits."
Euro-zone officials have stepped up planning to
contain the fallout of a possible Greek exit from the euro zone, even as
European leaders meeting here Wednesday said they want the country to remain in
the single currency area.
Pressure on Greece increased
dramatically on Wednesday night after Germany's central bank called for a suspension of financial support to Athens and eurozone finance
ministries agreed to draft contingency plans for a Greek exit from the euro.
I find your lack of faith disturbing – alphaville
/ FT
The ‘Greece’ section of the
Bundesbank’s latest report on the German economy must be read to be believed:
Eurosystem should not increase its risks from Greece
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| S&P 500 selects the President |
OTHER
QE's Long Shadow Is Getting Shorter – ZH
Still more
room to go before the end of “QE bottom”
FT Alphaville has been focusing on signs that China may be suffering a
“capital outflow” problem. We also think global markets may be under
appreciating the problem.